We rebuilt Bloomberg's WIRP screen as a free embed

What is Bloomberg WIRP and why does it cost $24,000/year?

Bloomberg's WIRP (World Interest Rate Probability) is one of the most-used screens on the Bloomberg Terminal. It shows the implied probability of rate changes for every major central bank worldwide — the Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ, RBA, BoC, Riksbank, SNB, and more.

For rates traders, macro analysts, and financial journalists, WIRP is the single source of truth for 'what is the market pricing?' before any central bank decision. It's referenced in thousands of research notes and news articles every week.

The problem: it costs $24,000 per year to access, locked inside the Bloomberg Terminal. This means independent researchers, finance students, journalists at smaller publications, and boutique analysts are locked out of the data that drives the market narrative.

Why did we rebuild Bloomberg WIRP as a free tool?

The WIRP calculation is not proprietary. It uses publicly available OIS (Overnight Index Swap) rates and futures prices — the same data that Bloomberg uses. The methodology is well-documented in academic literature. What Bloomberg charges for is the convenience of having it pre-calculated, auto-updated, and displayed in a clean interface.

We believe this data should be accessible to everyone in finance. So we rebuilt the core WIRP methodology as a free Quadesto tool, covering the six most-followed central banks.

How does WIRP calculate rate probabilities?

WIRP's calculation varies slightly by central bank depending on the available instruments, but the core approach is the same:

For the Federal Reserve

Uses Fed Funds futures (ZQ) and SOFR futures (SR3). The calculation follows the same day-weighted probability extraction as FedWatch (see our separate deep-dive on that methodology). The forward OIS curve provides the term structure of expected rates.

For the ECB

Uses €STR (Euro Short-Term Rate) OIS swaps. The key difference from the Fed is that ECB meetings don't follow a fixed 8-per-year schedule — they can be monthly. The calculation maps OIS rates to ECB meeting dates and extracts the implied step changes.

For the Bank of England

Uses SONIA (Sterling Overnight Index Average) OIS swaps. The BoE meets 8 times per year, similar to the Fed. The calculation is analogous but uses the SONIA curve.

For the Bank of Japan

Uses TONA (Tokyo Overnight Average Rate) swaps. The BoJ is unique because negative rates were in play for years. The calculation must handle the zero bound and the possibility of yield curve control adjustments.

For the RBA and BoC

Use their respective overnight rate swaps. The methodology is identical to the Fed approach but with different meeting schedules and rate conventions.

Implementation details

For each central bank, the calculation follows these steps:

1. Collect the relevant OIS curve or futures strip.

2. Map the curve to meeting dates using the central bank's published calendar.

3. For each meeting, extract the implied forward rate immediately before and after the meeting.

4. Calculate the step change and convert to probability of different outcomes (hold, 25bp, 50bp, etc.).

5. For multi-meeting horizons, apply the conditional probability tree approach.

How is the free WIRP rebuild different from Bloomberg's?

Our rebuild adds three features that Bloomberg's WIRP doesn't offer:

Embeddable: Every probability table and chart can be embedded in a newsletter, website, or research note. Bloomberg screenshots are copyright-restricted; our charts are free to embed.

Historical comparison: See how probabilities have evolved over weeks and months. Bloomberg shows you today's snapshot; we show you the trajectory.

Adjustable assumptions: Change the assumed neutral rate, the step size (25bp vs variable), or the meeting-skip logic. This is valuable for scenario analysis.

Which central banks does the free WIRP tool cover?

Our initial release covers six central banks:

• Federal Reserve (Fed Funds futures + SOFR)

• European Central Bank (€STR OIS)

• Bank of England (SONIA OIS)

• Bank of Japan (TONA swaps)

• Reserve Bank of Australia (Cash Rate futures)

• Bank of Canada (CORRA swaps)

Try it free

The entire tool is free to use. No Bloomberg Terminal required. Every chart is embeddable. If you're a finance journalist, newsletter writer, or research analyst who references rate probabilities in your work, you no longer need a $24,000/year subscription to cite the data.

This is what Quadesto is built for: democratizing access to institutional-grade financial analytics. The data is public. The methodology is published. The only thing that was missing was a good implementation that's free and embeddable. That's what we've built.