Implied probabilities of Federal Reserve rate changes at upcoming FOMC meetings, derived from Fed Funds futures prices.
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Rate probabilities are extracted from Fed Funds futures (ZQ contracts) using a day-weighted formula and conditional probability tree. The same methodology used by CME's FedWatch tool.
Each bar shows the market-implied probability of a specific rate outcome. A long -25bp bar means the market strongly expects a quarter-point cut at that meeting.
Probabilities shown are representative of current market conditions based on delayed futures data. For real-time probabilities, use CME Group's official FedWatch tool.
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